Sports Betting Weekly

Leeds v Millwall

When: Saturday, 14 February 2015 @ 21:00 (FINISHED)
Where: Elland Road
While Norwich and Wolves are battling it out in the top half of the table, two sides that will be looking nervously over their shoulders at the relegation trapdoor will take to the field in a crucial match at the bottom as Leeds take on Millwall at Elland Road.

The home side currently sit five points clear of Millwall in 17th place and will want to continue a decent run of form that has seen them take three wins and two draws from their last six fixtures, including a hugely impressive 1-0 victory over league leaders, Bournemouth.

The visitors, meanwhile, looked in danger of sinking without a trace until a run of five straight defeats was briefly halted by a draw and a win. However, a 3-1 home reverse to Huddersfield instantly dampened any talk of a revival and the Lions currently sit inside the relegation zone on goal difference, with the bookies pricing them up as 4/5 third favourites for the drop at the end of the season.

If their predictions for this game are anything to go by, things could well be about to get worst for the visitors too. Leeds are being touted by the bookmakers as 5/4 favourites for the clash, with the draw at 5/2 and Millwall out at 13/5, but in truth the price on an away win looks generous given the visitors have lost on their last four visits to Elland Road and won just once in their last seven trips.

Like Wolves in our first preview this issue, both Leeds and Millwall have struggled for goals in the Championship with 32 and 28 strikes for respectively, but unlike Kenny Jackett’s men, neither have looked secure at the back and both sit in the bottom third of the division for worst goal difference. As such, it looks difficult to decide whether misfiring attacks or leaky defences will have the strongest bearing on the score, but a look at the two teams’ head-to-head should begin to point you in the right direction.

Since the start of the 2011/2012 season, six of the sides’ seven meetings have resulted in one team winning to nil, with Leeds’ aforementioned home record against Millwall making them the preferred choice to achieve such a feat again at 11/4 and “both teams to score – no” also a viable option at evens. What’s more, of those six one-sided victories, all have finished either 1-0 or 2-0 to the eventual winners, making under 2.5 goals in this one look like a fairly safe bet at odds of around 3/4.

While backing a team with as patchy a recent record as Millwall’s to win to nil away from home certainly looks a long shot, if you do fancy the Lions to keep a clean sheet – something that is priced at 11/4 on its own – the smart money may be on backing the game to finish goalless at 9/1.